Global burden of cancer attributable to elevated body-mass index: an updated analysis including population-specific and Mendelian Randomisation risk estimates, and g-formula impact estimations

Closing date: 15/03/2027

MB-PhD Studentship: Global burden of cancer attributable to elevated body-mass index: an updated analysis including population-specific and Mendelian Randomisation risk estimates, and g-formula impact estimations

Lead Supervisors: Professor Andrew Renehan
Lead Supervisors: Professor Matt Sperrin, Dr Isabelle Soerjomataram, Professor Richard Martin

Applications Deadline: Monday 15th March 2027
Interviews: Week commencing 3rd May 2027
Start date: September 2027

Project Keywords: Obesity, cancer incidence, cancer prevention
Research Opportunity: MB-PhD Studentship

Project Outline

Elevated body-mass index (BMI; defined ≥ 25 kg/m²) is associated with increased risk of at least 13 cancer types. In 2026, there is now new evidence, that elevated BMI is associated with up to 19 cancer types; that per increment increase in BMI, risk for some cancers is greater in Asian versus European populations; and risk estimates generated through genetic instruments, namely 2 Mendelian Randomisation (MR) studies, arguably a less biased method, may be larger than those from observational studies. In 2015, the lead supervisor (Renehan) with researchers from IARC (lead: Soerjomataram) estimated that the global population attribution fraction (PAF) on elevated BMI on cancer risk was 3·6%, being greater in women than in men (5·4% vs 1·9%).

Aim: Based on the above new evidence, and the anticipated increased prevalence of elevated BMI worldwide, this thesis will update the 2015 study.

Methods: There will be 3 ambitious workstreams (WSs) – importantly, the statistical algorithms are already available. WS1: PAFs will be derived using update sex- and population-specific relative risks in adults by country, using BMI data freely available from the GBD BMI Collaborator dataset, and extracting incidence data on 19 cancer types from GLOBOCAN2025. WS2: To use the UK Biobank to evaluate time-varying effects of the BMI exposure, including the use of g-formula estimations. WS3: Update the systematic review of MR studies of the associations of BMI traits and susceptibility to cancer and to do a ‘deep drive’ into the controversial aspects of MR study interpretation, relevant to this topic: (i) critical life-stage MR; (ii) directly measured versus genetically proxied measures of BMI; and (iii) selection bias.

Impact: In many western populations, obesity is the second commonest cause of cancer after smoking. This thesis will inform public health policy and future research priorities with contemporary data and updated risk estimates.

Applications for this project are now open. Please complete your application on The University of Manchester Postgraduate Application Portal.

About Professor Andrew Renehan (project Lead Supervisor)

Andrew Renehan is Professor of Cancer Studies and Surgery and leads the Manchester Cancer Research Centre (MCRC) Diabesity and Cancer Research Group, studying relationships between obesity, diabetes, and anti-diabetes therapies, with cancer risk and outcomes – including clinical epidemiology and translational studies.  This group is located within the Cancer Screening and Prevention hub at the MCRC Kinnaird Road site and at the Farr Institute@HeRC at Vaughan House on the main University campus. At any one time, he has a team of 1 to 2 postgraduate fellows and 3 to 4 students working on projects in this theme. He is a founder co-chair of the Cancer Prevention Research Network; the bio-statistical lead for biomarker development in the Clinical and Experimental Pharmacology Group, CR UK Manchester Institute; current chair of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) Diabetes and Cancer Study Group; co-chair of the MCRC clinical training fellowships scheme. He was one of 21 international scientists in the IARC handbook writing group on obesity and cancer in 2016.

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